Photo: Apple via Bloomberg
Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets has one of the more interesting ways to forecast Apple’s future products and earnings.He maintains what he calls the “Apple Monitor,” which tracks suppliers who make the parts that go into Apple products. When the Apple Monitor does well, it’s an indication that Apple is either manufacturing new products and putting in big orders for parts, or Apple’s putting in big orders because its selling a lot of stuff.
For instance, last June White’s Apple Monitor showed sales falling 13% on a month over month basis, as compared to an average rise of 1% on month over month basis for June. After that report, Apple delivered worse than expected earnings, blaming a dip in iPhone sales.
It’s certainly not a perfect indication of what’s going to happen with Apple’s earnings, or its products, but it’s a fun thing to watch for people like us who tend to analyse every aspect of the company’s performance.
White has a new Apple Monitor report out, and it’s very bullish for investors. He calls it the “best July on record.”
The Apple Monitor was up 14% on a month over month basis, compared to an average increase of 8.5% over the last seven years. White writes, “We believe this strength reflects the Apple supply chain ramping up production of new products for Apple that are expected to launch this September.”
Last year the Apple Monitor was up 7% in July. As a result, White believes this is more evidence to support the theory that Apple is going to be selling a new iPhone in September this year as opposed to October of last year. He also thinks Apple ships an “iPad Mini” in September.