Analysts at Barclays and Goldman Sachs have notes out this morning predicting “conservative” guidance from Apple when it reports earnings next week.Apple always provides low guidance, making it easier to “beat” expectations, but in this case the earthquake in Japan could have a real impact on margins and sales.
Here’s Goldman’s note from the morning:
We expect Apple to report upside for the March quarter, primarily due to increasing iPhone and iPad demand momentum, and we are raising our revenue and EPS estimates to $22.95 bn and $5.37, from $21.99 bn and $4.99 (consensus of $23.18 bn and $5.33. Nevertheless, the company’s June-quarter guidance should be very conservative, due to the supply chain disruptions from the earthquake in Japan, and we are lowering our revenue and EPS estimates to $22.67 bn and $4.67, from $22.66 bn and $5.00 (consensus of $23.80 bn and $5.28). We believe this short-term disruption presents a unique buying
And here’s Barclays:
For F3Q, we are comfortable with our EPS estimate of $5.44 on 59% y/y revenue growth to $25B but we expect Apple to maintain its practice of guiding well below consensus for EPS with conservative gross margin forecasts as well – especially given the situation in Japan and rising component prices. Apple’s revenue guide, while above consensus last quarter, is likely to be below our estimate for F3Q. The timing of iPhone 5, which we largely expect to ship in C3Q, product availability of iPad 2 and any potential disruption from Japan are other key factors to the report. Regardless, even with a conservative guide from Apple we look for the stock to perk up again after the quarter and guide – into the iPhone 5 cycle.
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