Apple Fans Predict Blowout Quarter...But All That Matters Is Guidance

A group of folks who ridicule Wall Street analysts for intentionally lowballing their Apple estimates so Apple can “surprise” on the upside have assembled their own consensus for Apple’s Q4. Not surprisingly, the consensus calls for upside:

  • $8.4 billion of revenue vs. the Street consensus of $8.0 and Apple’s guidance of $7.5.
  • EPS of $1.25 vs. the Street consensus of $1.11 and Apple’s guidance of $1.00.

Based on Apple’s previous performance vs. guidance, these estimates seem reasonable. They do not allow for much intra-quarter slowdown due to the deteriorating economy, however.

As in previous Apple quarters, moreover, the most important information for the stock will not be the Q4 performance but the company’s guidance for Q1. A spectacular Q4 will be forgotten instantly if the company slams on the brakes for the current quarter.

We’ll publish our sense of what the Street is looking for in the way of guidance tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime, here’s a chart of the “amateurs vs the pros” Q4 estimates, compiled by Philip Elmer Dewitt of Fortune:

See Also: Why The Recession Won’t Crush Apple


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