Apple Could Ship 77 Million iPhones In 2 Years, Become Market Leader In 4

iphone apps billion tbi

Apple will topple Nokia as the smartphone market leader by 2013, says Electronista, quoting a study by Generator Research.

Nokia currently leads the market with a 40% share. The study says that’ll come down to 20% in four years, as Apple’s market share rises to a third.

In this view, 2011 will be the year Apple matches Nokia’s sales and ships about 77 million iPhones.

Why the confidence in Apple?

  • The combination of the iPhone and the app store, with each boosting the other’s sales
  • The advantage of selling to a wider audience — smartphone users and existing iPod users to whom it can market a hybrid of a smartphone and the music player.

Why the lack of faith in Nokia?

  • Nokia’s cash cow is the budget devices market in developing countries, where the market is still growing — As Electronista says, “the company doesn’t have an actual financial stake in keeping smartphones at the top. The Finnish giant is likely to try and defend its territory but may be only half-hearted in funding its efforts as the smartphone business won’t be where Nokia makes its true profits.”
  • Slow response to competition — It took Nokia a year and a half to come back with a device to compete with the iPhone, and launched another version — the N97 — just recently.
  • Will it be able to comptete with the iPhone app store? As Electronista notes, “The rapid expansion of the iPhone’s App Store also pushed Nokia to launch the Ovi Store as a central portal for software despite running its N-Gage and music stores with modest success for considerably longer.”

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