Top Apple analyst Gene Munster just released his roadmap for Apple in 2011, and we have to say it looks relatively snoozy.
Compared to last year when Apple had an amazing year with the iPad, iPhone 4, Apple TV, and redesigned MacBook Air, this year is about making minor enhancements to its current products.
Munster is calling for new and exciting stuff in 2012. He thinks Apple rolls out innovative web services, and maybe a television.
Better late than never on the web services, but if Apple wants to protect its mobile lead it better make the web a bigger part of its offerings this year.
Google’s one truly huge advantage over Apple is its web-based services like Gmail, Google Docs, Maps, Picasa, and Voice.
Apple doesn’t have that sort of lock up for people, yet. We don’t count Mobile Me, since it’s a relatively expensive service, and it’s not all that great to use in our experience.
Here’s the major announcements for Apple in 2011 with their probabilities from Munster:
– Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (March qtr) (our est)
– Mac App Store: Probability 100% (Jan. 6 launch)
– iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%
– iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%
– iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%
– OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)
And here’s when we can expect upgrades to the hardware:
– iPhone (March quarter). We are modelling for Apple to launch a CDMA version of the iPhone at Verizon in the March-11 quarter. The fifth generation iPhone will likely ship this summer with NFC capability.
– iPad (spring). We believe the second generation iPad will launch in spring 2011.
– Macs (uncertain). We have moderate confidence that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in 1H11 and redesigned iMacs in 2H11.
– iPods (fall). As usual, we expect Apple to refresh its iPods in the fall.