AOL Worth Just $4.2 Billion -- Analyst

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JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan says Time Warner (TWX) online subsidiary AOL is worth just $4.2 billion.

That’s a much lighter number than even the $5.5 billion valuation Google gave AOL in January when it wrote down its 5% stake in the company.

Media Memo’s Peter Kafka reminds us that “was, of course, a markdown from the $20 billion value Google had given it in 2005.”

Pali Research Rich Greenfield pegs AOL’s value a bit lower — at $4 billion. But he’s optimistic about its upside, writing in a note this morning:

“To the extent that AOL’s new management can paint a 2010 story that AOL EBITDA can do better than a 20% decline, we believe there could be meaningful valuation upside – not to mention, the upside if M&A speculation surfaces (given the significant traffic AOL’s sites continue to command).”

Here’s how Imran did his maths:

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