Finally, a positive economics story for the week with the DEEWR jobs vacancies data released yesterday showing an improvement of 12% over the year to October.
That’s a solid rise and the ANZ economics team reckons that even though the trend is softening, the data highlights the improving labour market in Australia.
Given the “underlying trend from the official statistics is difficult to determine” at the moment, ANZ economists Savita Singh and Riki Polygenis put together a great set of charts which give a better feel for what is really happening in Australia’s labour market.
If Singh and Polygenis are right then the economy will be on its way back to health, even if still on trend or below growth:
These trends are broadly consistent with our view that the unemployment rate is unlikely to deteriorate much further from here, although we do not envisage any material improvement until 2016.
Here is their deep dive:
All measures of the labour market are signalling improvement
Employment growth should catch up to job ads
NAB Business survey profitability suggests more jobs coming
Firms report the labour market is tighter as well
This DEEWR survey means the unemployment rate seems too high
Job ads remain encouraging across non-mining industries