The economy giveth and the economy taketh away.
This is the story in the signals from NAB’s Business Survey and ANZ’s Job Advertisement series which have both just been released simultaneously this morning.
Job ads fell 5.8% in May, the first decline in five months but the break up was interesting insofar as internet ads dropped 6% month-on-month while newspaper ads rose 7.2%. The ANZ says the latter figure is “likely reflecting some ‘statistical payback’ after falling a sharp 11.8% month-on-month in April.”
“Job advertising fell sharply in May after improving gradually since the end of 2013. The timing of the fall coincides with the deterioration in consumer confidence since negative newsflow regarding the Commonwealth Budget began and suggests that business confidence has similarly been affected,” ANZ senior economist Justin Fabo said.
We now know business confidence, as measured by today’s NAB survey, has not been affected at this point in time so the outlook for job ads may be for a recovery next month with ANZ’s “forecast that labour demand will improve slowly this year amid modestly better economic conditions” may yet bear fruit.
So it’s too early to worry just yet.