The ANZ job ads survey recorded a 1.4% fall in March.
That’s the first fall after 9 months of rises in seasonally adjusted terms, although in trend terms the 17-month run of increases continued.
It’s difficult to tell what this means for the real economy given that there has been such a large disconnect over the past couple of years between the job ads series and the unemployment rate.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan says that the fall, “may suggest that peak growth in job advertisements has now passed.”
He says the big disconnect between unemployment and ads “reflects that job losses in areas such as mining and manufacturing are causing a greater inflow of labour than other sectors of the economy are capable of absorbing. This is expected to continue through 2015, resulting in the unemployment rate trending higher.”
After a day of good news on the services sector and retail sales this is a reminder that unemployment remains elevated and a clear danger to any recovery in the domestic economy.