ANZ: Job ads are up again making tomorrow's RBA cut now 'line-ball'

ANZ job ads for April are up 2.3% after falling in March. That takes the trend rally to its 18th consecutive month of increases.

The ANZ said the increase was driven by internet job ads.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said that job ads “now sit at the highest level in two and a half years. This positive result is consistent with recent employment data.”

That means even a day before the RBA is widely expected to cut, Hogan says “the improved position of the labour market provides a risk to our forecast of a further rate cut.”

But he says he still expects, “further monetary policy easing given soft business and consumer confidence, a negative outlook for non-mining investment, and likely further job losses across mining and manufacturing.”

Whether or not the RBA cuts it’s clear that Hogan and his team are sensing a turn in the Australian economy. “However, a more positive starting point for the labour market, a re-acceleration in investor housing credit and RBA comments that monetary policy is less effective than it has been in previous episodes, cause us to acknowledge that a cut in May might be a line-ball call,” Hogan said.

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