ANZ: Australia's GDP Today Will Overstate Growth

Getty / Paula Bronstein

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release Australia’s GDP results for the fourth quarter of 2013 at 11.30am today with the market expecting between 0.6% and 0.8% for the quarter.

That would take year-on-year growth into the high 2% range from the low 2% range in Q3, 2013.

That looks like a good result for Australia but as per the ANZ’s economics team’s preview released overnight, like the song says, it ain’t necessarily so.

While the ANZ itself is looking for a print of 0.7%, it says:

Although a 0.7% rise in GDP is a respectable result, it overstates the underlying strength in the economy. That is, while overall growth is not too far from trend, private final demand looks to have fallen 0.5% q/q in the quarter with the windback in mining investment providing a sizeable drag on growth.

The point the ANZ is making is that we are already in March and this GDP data is somewhat historic, with the recent Capex data showing a big step down in investments in the coming 18 months.

We’ll know more at 11.30am.

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