ANZ: Australian employment growth may be about to slow

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Australia just received its first labour market indicator for July, and it’s slightly disappointing.

According to ANZ, Aussie job advertisements dipped by 0.4% to 146,121 in July, taking the annual increase in posting to 9.3%.

Over the month internet ads fell by 0.5% to 143,083, taking the annual rate of growth to 10%. While a far smaller component, newspaper postings rose by 2.2% to 3,038. From a year earlier they have fallen by 17.5%.

While the ANZ series remains close to the highest level seen in nearly three years, chief economist Warren Hogan believes employment growth will slow in the second half of the year.

“The small decline in job advertising in July comes after growth in job ads had been slowing for some time. While job ads were around 9% higher over the year to July, they were just 3.6% higher in annualised terms over the most recent three months,” he said.

“The slower growth in job advertising supports our view that employment growth will slow in the second half of 2015 following unexpectedly strong outcomes since late 2014”.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s Australian employment report for July, the ANZ are anticipating a net increase in employment of 15,000, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 6.0%.

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