Everyone wondering what Anthony Ward is up to after he placed a huge order of cocoa last week immediately should be glad – a video interview gives a good idea.
Ward’s South Africa-based fund, Armanjaro, is not well-known but is best known for supplying cocoa and coffee to the world’s users. (Probably everyone will have had coffee or chocolate sourced by Amanjaro at some point. His 240,000 ton order is roughly 7% of world cocoa production.)
An interview he did with Opalesque in January enlightens his motives.
He predicts a shortage of food, water – the basic necessities a huge population needs to survive.
- The global population is growing at an enormous rate.
- Everyone’s concerned about energy, they should be concerned about water.
- The world is now growing stuff in less suitable places. – They’re moving to land which is not as good, which requires irrigation. Any water stress around the world is a problem.
In sum, he says , “I think people are interested in the asset class because everyone recognises that the world is growing and food and water are really going to be in shortage.”
It is worth noting that Ward used to work with Andy Hall at Phibro, the commodities trading unit through which Hall bought up tons of oil futures and made one of the greatest trades of all time. So it’s fair to say he’s got good experience gathering excessive data, making predictions, and cornering markets.
And here’s another reason to think twice about how much cocoa Ward just bought.
He also says in the interview:
- “We employ a full-time meterologist and we’ve done a matrix of the world. We follow the seasons and the crops from east to west, south to north….”
- “We have our own weather stations in some parts of the world that no one else has access to at all.”
- “To give you an idea of how much information comes into our building, we had to put special electicity in the street to be able to take all of the information that comes into the building at night.”
(Video via Channel4)
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