Throughout much of last year, if there was one thing everyone was SURE was going to happen, it was a trade war. It was probably going to be between China and the US.
Now, granted, there has been a little bit. The US has slapped a few, narrow tarrifs on Chinese steel. Europe has done a little, and of course China maintains its uber-mercantilist yuan peg.
But let’s be clear, in addition to every other doom scenario, there hasn’t been a massive trade war, and there are no signs one is about to break out.
Even the WTO, which is as commited to free trade as they come, isn’t too concerned anymore.