So we know we’re going to hit the debt ceiling again some time early next year, and we know it’s going to be a fight again, because Boehner has already promised to launch a fight. And we know it’s going to be a nasty fight, because the Republicans have already reneged on their promises from the last fight, so there will even be less good will than last time between the two parties.
And now Ezra Klein points out it’s even going to be worse, because of the timing. Basically, if we end up having a debt ceiling fight in early 2013, it would imply that the fiscal cliff issues that come up in December 2012 weren’t solved.
That is to say, it’s a scenario in which we’ve already reached the fiscal cliff and fallen over the edge. It’s a scenario in which the Bush tax cuts have probably expired, and the spending cuts have probably begun. It’s a scenario in which the markets are already in some amount of turmoil, and the forecasters are already sharply warning that Congress is dragging the country into a double-dip recession. It’s a scenario in which the two parties are already under tremendous pressure, in which Washington has been in some sort of semi-crisis for months, and in which all the possible deals have already been tried and failed. (It’s also a scenario, incidentally, in which our projected deficits are much lower, because our expected tax revenues are so much higher.)
So basically: Debt ceiling + more acrimony than last time + fiscal-cliffmageddon.
Of course, if Romney wins, then probably none of this happens.
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