Barclays analyst Vijay Jayant says in a note for clients that the iPhone probably won’t be on Verizon this year:
Via John Paczkowski: “Launch of Apple’s iPad on AT&T’s network is a vote of confidence in AT&T’s network by the equipment maker,” Jayant writes. “While iPad sales are unlikely to materially impact wireless revenues in the short term, selecting AT&T to launch its second major communications product reflects Apple’s bias for the global GSM platform and the prospects of AT&T’s network capability. Moreover, it could suggest the iPhone exclusivity may continue, at least through the end of 2010.”
Last week, Jonathan Chaplin at Credit Suisse said there was a 75% chance Apple stayed with AT&T.
We haven’t seen a precise report on when Apple’s contract with AT&T is up, so Vijay’s guess is as good as any. Regardless, we think it should happen sooner than later. The two companies need each other.
Jonathan says Apple already has 66% of AT&T’s smartphone share. So its growth is limited there. Verizon has the Droid, which is a decent phone. It supposed to get the Nexus One too, but neither phone is as popular as the iPhone.