Ex-Morgan Stanley Andy Xie described Chinese real estate as 100% overvalued according to 163.com.
He also pins the Shanghai Composite Index’s ‘intrinsic value’ at 2,000 points. It stands at over 2,700 right now.
Xie compared the current Chinese housing market to the Japanese housing market of the 1980s and 1990s and predicts China’s stock and real estate markets will decline slightly in the fourth quarter of this year, with a large decline coming in 2012.
The average home prices in Shanghai in 2000 was 3,326 yuan per square meter, soaring to 26,000 yuan per square meter in April 2010, said the report.
So there’s the potential timing.