We pulled three nice charts from Goldman’s Global Economics Weekly. The theme is emerging markets domestic demand, and while Western world has famously been devouring emerging markets exports for quite some time now, the next few decades will be about emerging markets consuming a rapidly increasing share of the world’s products.
Already, despite all the hype to the contrary this has already been happening, whereby domestic demand growth has been faster in emerging markets than developed markets.
The story of emerging markets’ (EM) imports has significantly changed in the past decade. Since 2000, EM imports have grown by 17% on average, exceeding both world import growth (13%) and developed markets’ (DM) import growth (10%). In level terms too, EMs are making their mark by increasing their share of total world imports (currently 45%, compared to 30% in the late 1990s).
This means that emerging markets (EM) are likely to account for a larger portion of global imports than developed markets (DM), by 2020 as shown below. (The white bars)
Further out, emerging markets will account for a larger and larger share of world import. By 2050 they could account for over 70% of world imports. (The dark blue bars above). It seems like U.S. and European exports are the place to be, the wind will be behind their back for the next 40 years.
(Via Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Weekly, 31 March 2010)
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