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As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal‘s Justin Lahart, the tone of analysts’ during conference calls does not just reflect the company’s most recent performance, but it can also be predictive of how the analyst will assess the company in the near future.Jordan Schoenfeld, a PhD student at the University of Michigan, conducted research on the topic and has a working paper explaining his work, most of which can be found on his website jordanschoenfeld.com.
The most interesting part of his conclusion is the correlation between analysts’ tone and the quarterly earnings of the company covered. Here is a conclusion he reached through his study:
I also find that analyst tone provides significant explanatory power in
models of future returns, future changes in analyst stock recommendations, and the probability
that a firm will meet the analyst benchmark in the quarter subsequent to the conference call.
Schoenfeld reached this conclusion by using lists of negative and positive financial terms and how frequently the terms came up on conference calls. He then followed the performance of the company’s stock and concluded that yes, the tone of the analyst on the call does have an affect on the future performance of the stock.
So when you are listening in to the latest earnings call, be sure to focus on the tone during the call, as the future of the stock’s performance may be given to you on a silver platter.
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