Analysts Far Too Bearish On GDP

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The final revision for US second quarter GDP came in much better than expected.

Today’s Department of Commerce release shows that the US economy shrank at only a 0.7% annual rate, less than the 1% decline reported in last month’s GDP revision.

Positive surprises include better than expected inventory, trade balance, government spending, and business investment data.

The latest number represents a substantial rebound from the first quarter’s 6.4% GDP drop.

Furthermore, the release caught analysts, as polled by Reuters, off guard. These analysts had expected the final GDP revision to be worse than the last, at -1.2%. Thus they were off by a relatively large 0.5% margin.

Read the Commerce Department release here.

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