An analyst who correctly predicted Trump’s victory says Marine Le Pen will win the French election.
Charles Gave, founder of the Hong Kong-based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal research, told Bloomberg on Friday Le Pen’s support is a “slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos,” similar to Brexit and Trump.
Le Pen, of the far-right National Front party, is a self-styled populist leader in the same vein as Trump — though with a much more rigid ideology.
Current polls put Le Pen closely behind center-right candidate Emmanuel Macron. Francois Fillon, a conservative candidate, sits just behind Le Pen, though he’s been hit with a corruption scandal.
The first round of voting takes place on Sunday, and if there’s no outright majority, the top two candidates will face each other in a runoff on May 7.
Gave predicts that if Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left candidate, made it into the second round of voting, Fillon’s supporters and the vast pool of undecided voters would rally behind Le Pen.
Le Pen has campaigned on a promise to curtail immigration and withdraw from the Schengen Borders Agreement, putting France’s involvement in the European Union in jeopardy.
Gave sees markets underpricing a Le Pen victory, and is telling clients to go long on the U.K. pound. A Le Pen victory would tank the euro market as France pulling out of the European Union would be all but inevitable, reports Bloomberg.
See the latest EUR-USD movements here.
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