Analyst who correctly predicted Trump's victory thinks Le Pen will win French election

An analyst who correctly predicted Trump’s victory says Marine Le Pen will win the French election.

Charles Gave, founder of the Hong Kong-based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal research, told Bloomberg on Friday Le Pen’s support is a “slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos,” similar to Brexit and Trump.

Le Pen, of the far-right National Front party, is a self-styled populist leader in the same vein as Trump — though with a much more rigid ideology.

Current polls put Le Pen closely behind center-right candidate Emmanuel Macron. Francois Fillon, a conservative candidate, sits just behind Le Pen, though he’s been hit with a corruption scandal.

The first round of voting takes place on Sunday, and if there’s no outright majority, the top two candidates will face each other in a runoff on May 7.

Gave predicts that if Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left candidate, made it into the second round of voting, Fillon’s supporters and the vast pool of undecided voters would rally behind Le Pen.

Le Pen has campaigned on a promise to curtail immigration and withdraw from the Schengen Borders Agreement, putting France’s involvement in the European Union in jeopardy.

Gave sees markets underpricing a Le Pen victory, and is telling clients to go long on the U.K. pound. A Le Pen victory would tank the euro market as France pulling out of the European Union would be all but inevitable, reports Bloomberg.

See the latest EUR-USD movements here.

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