If you caught eBay’s earnings you already know: online shopping isn’t immune from the downturn. Barclays analyst Doug Anmuth figures his Wall Street colleagues are still giving Amazon too much credit, though, so he’s sliced estimates for the company ahead of next Wednesday’s earnings report. He expects earnings to come in at $.22 per share (street is at $.26) and revenue of $4.24B (vs $4.29 billion):
We believe eBay’s comments that macro-economic weakness began to impact sales in mid-August and has persisted into 4Q are lowering investor expectations around Amazon’s results and outlook. It is becoming apparent that no company is immune from this downturn, and while we believe Amazon should continue to outperform broader retail and e-commerce, we think it will be impacted by the tough environment.
But while eBay is seen as a victim of its own mistakes — letting the marketplace business deteriorate, a bad acquisition strategy etc. — Amazon’s management continues to execute well:
Rather, we believe management’s commitment to managing the business for the long-term with an unwavering focus on the user experience have led to the wide gap between Amazon and virtually all other online-retailers, large, small, pureplay or multi-channel. However, given heavy exposure to discretionary retail against a recessionary backdrop in nearly all markets, we believe the next several quarters could be challenging.
Meanwhile, for 2009, he’s now calling for revenue of $22.1 billion and EPS of $1.57, compared to $23.9B and $1.96 current consensus.