Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry says Google (GOOG) will post revenue declines for the next three years — $15.71 billion in 2008, $15.23 billion in 2009 and $14.57 billion in 2010.
The 2008 number is consistent with the rest of Wall Street, but Chowdhry’s 2009 and 2010 projections are far lower.
“Our research indicates that the challenging macro-economic conditions continue to worsen Google’s advertising driven consumer Internet business,” he writes, according to Barron’s.
Chowdhry says contacts tell him Google’s number of keywords sold is down 2% to 5%. He claims bids on keywords are down by as much as 20%.
Sources from search marketing firms SearchIgnite and iCrossing tell us they haven’t seen the same kind of declines.
Chowdhry points out that Google canceled plans to builds a data centre Oregon and that’s not the company’s only cost cut. It’s also cut food, travel, contractors and Friday afternoon parties — all while throwing new types of ads against Google News, Google Maps, Google Image Search and YouTube.
Our theory has been that Google is either scrambling to boost its Q4 revenues in order to just barely make them or in order to shock and awe a street full of doubters like Chowdhry.