Like others before him, Stifel Nicolaus analyst George Askew walks through the odds of a MSFT-YHOO deal going through and concludes that there’s a 70% chance it happens — either at MSFT’s current bid or at a higher price. The maths:
1. MSFT succeeds in its current bid (30% chance);
2. MSFT wins with a higher $32 bid (40% chance);
3. MSFT wins, deal blocked, stock to $25 (10% chance);
4. Competing takeover offer at $34 (10% chance);
5. Yahoo! stays independent, stock to $23 (10% chance).
See Also: Handicapping the YHOO-MSFT Scenarios
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