Last January, Boise Sate and TCU met in the Fiesta Bowl with Boise State winning 17-10.
A year later, Boise State remains undefeated – yet it trails TCU in the latest BCS poll.
With Boise State ranked fourth in the latest rankings, there is a good chance they won’t compete for a BCS championship.
Of course, if Oregon and Auburn also finish the regular season undefeated, it is hard to argue that Boise State deserves a shot at the title over those teams.
In fact, now there is concern that Boise State could be blocked out of the BCS all-together.
The BCS is only obligated to take the highest-ranked at-large team. And right now, that is TCU. And if TCU finishes the season undefeated, they will almost certainly finish ahead of Boise State as TCU still has a game against fifth-ranked Utah.
If Boise State is not in the Championship game, the other BCS bowl games will almost certainly fill the final three at-large bids with more attractive teams like Alabama, Nebraska, Ohio State and Oklahoma, assuming those teams finish the season with just one loss.
What is killing the Broncos is their strength of schedule. A factor that is weighed heavily in the computer polls (we think, although nobody knows for certain in the super-secretive computer polls formula). Boise State is currently ranked 4th, 5th, 5th, 5th, 7th, 7th and 13th in the computer polls. And those are likely to drop as the Broncos face only one ranked opponent in their final five games (#23 Nevada).
At the beginning of the season, it looked like Boise State was positioned to make a Cinderella run to the BCS title game and a nearly $10 million payout for the Western Athletic Conference. Now it looks like they will be playing December 18 at home in the Humanitarian Bowl.
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