According to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), which is a professional organisation of business economists within corporations, job creation has already begun in the U.S., in the first quarter of 2010, and it will now continue robustly over the next two quarters.
Job creation increased for the first time in the past two years of this NABE survey. The percentage of firms increasing payrolls rose to 22% from 13% in the January survey. The percentage of firms cutting jobs moved lower—from 28% in January to 13% in April. The share of respondents expecting their firms to add employees over the coming six months rose to 37%, up from 29% in the previous survey.
Thing is, their hiring plans and recent job growth has almost nothing to do with government stimulus they say:
The vast majority (73%) of respondents reported the fiscal stimulus enacted in February 2009 has had no impact on employment to date. While 68% also believe a jobs bill, such as the one recently enacted into law, will have no impact on payrolls, 30% do believe it will boost payrolls moderately.
Despite the fact that these people are on the ground seeing job growth from within corporations, we’ll just say that it would be hard to imagine that stimulus didn’t create any jobs. You can argue whether or not the jobs it creates are sustainable or even useful (some will say they are just make-work type projects and such). But near-term jobs are indeed created even if in the long-term they aren’t economically beneficial (let’s leave this endless debate for another space).
The perspective of these economists might highlight how stimulus hasn’t done much to stimulate job growth at private companies, since these are people at private companies, even if it has created a lot of public sector jobs (or public sector-driven jobs such as contractors hiring people to fulfil government bestowed contracts).
Regardless, for investors and workers right now, the good news is that private companies are increasingly looking to hire. Which is a good sign. It just may be that we shouldn’t be applauding stimulus for the change in hiring outlook.
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