Photo: Credit Suisse
Amazon’s share of the digital book market will slip from 90% today to 35% by 2015, according to a report from Spencer Wang at Credit Suisse. Spencer thinks Apple, Google and Amazon eventually end up splitting the e-book market.But while Spencer believes this reality has spooked Amazon investors, he himself doesn’t see this market share adjustment causing a great deal of long term pain for Amazon.
Amazon controls approximately 22% of total book sales (19% print, 90% digital). Even as its e-book marketshare slips, its physical book sales will grow, and Spencer projects Amazon will eventually control 33% of all book sales.
Spencer calculates the company’s compounded annual growth rate in the North American book market will be 7.5%.
Nevertheless, Amazon’s stock price has fallen since early December and Spencer thinks some of the pressure on the stock is coming from investors worried about Amazon’s ability to compete with Apple during a transition from physical books to digital.