There’s less than a week to the US Presidential election, and the polls are tightening fast.
What was seen as an easy Hillary Clinton victory just a couple of days ago now appears like a far closer contest.
As he has done so often in his run to the Oval office, Donald Trump, yet again, is failing to go by the wayside.
The financial markets are fretting — rightfully or wrongly — with global stocks continuing to slide as election day nears. Gold is bid, as is the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, underscoring heightened investor nerves.
And now it appears that all of the late money is backing in a Trump victory, one bookmaker says.
According to Bloomberg, Paddy Power, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, reports receiving wagers just shy of 100,000 euros on the election outcome so far this week, with 91% of those bets backing in a Trump victory.
The Republican candidate has outshone his rival in terms of both the number and volume of wagers placed.
“You don’t normally see so much placed on the outside candidate but I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people’s minds,” Paddy Power spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire told Bloomberg.
Even before last Friday’s FBI announcement that it was reopening an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server after learning of “the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation”, Mac An Iomaire says that money placed on a Trump victory has been almost the same as bets on Clinton, despite her lead in opinion polls.
While the bookmakers have not had the best track record for predicting the outcome of important polls this year — take the UK Brexit as an example, which had “remain” as firm favourite even after the polling booths closed — the late plunge on Trump is yet another sign that the election could be incredibly tight.
Should the late money prove correct, it could make for an embarrassing, and costly, outcome for Paddy Power.
In mid-October it announced that it would start paying out on a Clinton victory, having initially offered a Trump presidency with the odds of 100 to 1.
Website fivethirtyeight.com currently puts the odds of a Trump victory at 32.2%, up from 11.9% just prior to the third Presidential debate.
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