The S&P 500 just hit an all-time at Monday’s opening, but that may not be the end of the good news.
According to Tom Leveroni at Nautilus Research, hitting an all-time high means that more good news is on the horizon. The market has broken its previous record 17 times and each of those instances have been good news.
“As shown below, the only thing more bullish than a new 1 year high is a new multi-year high (i.e. > 2 year high) — 16 of 17 occurrences since 1928 gained 3 months later (avg + 4.44%) and all 17 occurrences were higher one year later,” wrote Leveroni in a note to clients Monday.
In fact, after these 17 multi-year highs, the average return for the S&P 500 has been 8.54% over the next 6 months and a whopping 15.56% over the next year.
Just because we’ve hit a new high doesn’t mean it’s the top yet in Leveroni’s opinion. Additionally, Leveroni was impressed by the resiliency of the market in such an uncertain global atmosphere, which makes the new record, as he called it, “The Mother of All Buy Signals.”
“This new high breakout in US big cap stocks has defiantly bucked a dour global mood and, based on historical precedent, should be respected,” he wrote. “We know of no other technical signal as robustly bullish for a longer-term horizon.”
While past performance is not always indicative of future returns, 17 out of 17 isn’t bad.
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