There could be over 150 million barrels of crude oil anchored at sea, waiting to be sold at higher prices via arbitrage. This oil trade has no doubt become more appealing given that tanker rates collapsed due to vessel oversupply. Note the recent spike in crude oil floating storage, below.
Near-term oil bulls who believe the demand situation is improving will have to contend with the sharp uptick in floating storage. Eventually, all of this oil will be released into the market. This doesn’t mean a collapse is coming, but upside will challenging due to this supply overhang ready to be sold at higher prices. Furthermore, if futures prices continue to stay higher than spot (ie. the market stays in contango), then there are plenty of more tankers out there to join the game and force a change.
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