Julia Ioffe at Foreign Policy presents what might be the most interesting analysis of Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin’s departure early this week.
Her explanation ignores the typical reports of Kudrin’s lust for power and come up with a different theory: the economic situation in Russia is far, far worse than anyone has realised — and things are about to get really rough.
Here’s the key paragraph:
The whole situation, it turns out, was far simpler than anyone had thought: Kudrin was just fed up and, quite likely, did not want to be held responsible for a policy he couldn’t control, especially on the eve of another economic meltdown. Kremlinology had become its own obfuscation. And now it looks like we’re set to miss the biggest story in many, many years: The rigid system is teetering, and its key components are breaking down. Oil money is running out, the economy is sputtering, social discontent is growing, all of the massive problems that the Kremlin first threw money at and then ignored in favour of pointless political intrigue are coming home to roost. And the charades that the Kremlin used to be so skilled at pulling off in order to release political pressure are now falling flat because very senior-level participants are, essentially, defecting. There have been two such implosions in the last 10 days and, given the fact that they’ve only made the system more untenable for those who remain, there’s no reason that they’ll stop.
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