The State Of The Slowing Global Economy In 2 Huge Slides

aluminium giant Alcoa just announced its Q3 earnings and they were better than expected. 

However, management cut its forecast for 2012 global demand growth to 6 per cent from 7 per cent previously.  This is way down from the 10 per cent growth rate they saw in 2011.

And demand for aluminium is extremely sensitive to global real GDP, so this is not good.

The following two slides come from Alcoa’s earnings presentation.  The first looks at demand growth from industrial end markets.  The second looks at demand growth based on regional end markets.

One stat that stands out is the huge decline in truck and trailer production in China, which confirms the warning that truck engine maker Cummins gave tonight..

As you can see in the second slide, demand in much of the world is expected to have decelerated in the second half.

alcoa

Photo: Alcoa

alcoa

Photo: Alcoa

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