Saturday’s LSU-Alabama game is the biggest football game of the year.Vegas received more bets on this game than any game on the board last week, and they expect more action on this game than National Championship game last year.
Here’s our breakdown of the line:
The line stands at either Alabama -5 or -4.5. But it’s -5 most places.
That’s virtually unchanged from the -4.5 that it opened at last week.
Right now, bookies and spread graphs indicate that between 67% and 75% of all bets have been on the underdog LSU.
So if bettors are hammering LSU, why hasn’t the line moved?
There are two possible explanation.
One is that professional wise guys are evening up the action by placing monster wagers on Alabama. Todd Fuhrman of Caesar’s indicated that he’s seeing sharp action on Bama earlier this week, and he thinks the line will move to make LSU an even bigger underdog by Saturday.
Another reason the line isn’t moving is that this game is being bet so heavily that Vegas has decided to set a line its comfortable with and sick with it. Every square bettor in the world is going to have this game in their parlays and teasers — essentially guaranteeing that the books will make money even if they are more exposed to an LSU cover.
Bottom line: the line is true, and the smart money looks likes Bama.
But how do we know that sharps really like Bama? Couldn’t they just be trying to drive the line up so they can get more points on LSU later in the week?
No. Here’s why we know the smart money on Bama is true.
Since the line isn’t close to any key numbers (3, 6, 7), there’s little chance that sharps are betting Bama to force a more favourable line for LSU. If the number was -5.5 and they were trying to move it to -6.5, then you could question whether or not they truly like Bama in this game.
But right now, the sharp money legitimately likes Bama.
So think twice before wagering on LSU this weekend.
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