The Afghan government is currently headed toward corrupt elections and a subsequent collapse after NATO troops pull out in 2014, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).The report, titled “Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition,” states that the UN-backed government of President Hamid Karzai has shown no sign of organising credible presidential or parliamentary 2014 elections in the war-racked country.
“There are alarming signs Karzai hopes to stack the deck” for a family member or other proxy to take over, the report states. He could also declare a state of emergency as a means of extending his own power, “which would accelerate state collapse and likely precipitate a civil war.”
Al-Jazeera cites a recent analysis of Gilles Dorronsoro, Afghan expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who goes one step further by saying that after that civil war, “a Taliban victory will likely follow.”
One thing that may prevent the Taliban reasserting its power is that NATO special operations soldiers—the most elite soldiers in the Afghan coalition—will remain beyond the 2014 withdrawal to prevent militants from gaining back territory won in the past 11 years, according to Carmen Gentile for USA Today.
Nevertheless, a government collapse doesn’t bode well for the women of Afghanistan. AFP reports that two prominent Afghan women activists are calling on international policymakers to continue to help the “very fragile” position of women in the country.
In the last 10 years, Afghan women have entered leading positions in government and non-government organisations while girls “know the value of being educated,” Hasina Safi, director of the Afghanistan Women’s Education centre, told AFP. “They have a vision, they are thinking.”
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