ADP said private payrolls climbed just 204,000 in August.
Consensus was for an increase of 220,000. Today’s reading is below July’s 212,000 gain.
Still, it was the fifth-straight month of +200,000 jobs gains.
“The key point here is that after a run of volatility triggered initially by the severe winter, ADP’s number is now back on track, simply telling us what happened in the official data the previous month,” Pantheon Macro’s Ian Shepherdson writes. “Remember, the ADP number is generated by a model which incorporates both current month data from companies using ADP for payroll processing and hard data from the previous month, reflecting the tendency for payroll gains to mean-revert over time. We are sticking to our 250K forecast for tomorrow.”
The service sector added 190,000, while goods-producing industries added 41,000.
Here’s what their current chart now looks like:
And here’s the long view:
The smallest-sized firms continue to outpace all other firm sizes in post-2008 jobs growth. Two firm-size categories remain below pre-2008 levels.
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