ADP Private Payrolls Surge

ADP’s December private payrolls report beat expectations, rising by 241,000.

Expectations were for the report to show payrolls grew by 225,000 in December, up from 208,000 in November.

November’s report was also revised up to show payrolls grew by 227,000.

This is one of two employment reports (initial jobless claims come out on Thursday morning), we get before the December jobs report is released Friday morning.

Following this report, US stock futures remained higher, with Dow futures up 157 points, S&P 500 futures up 18 points, and Nasdaq futures up 34 points.

Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro wrote in a note to clients following the report that since the report lags official payrolls, it holds “no reliable predictive value.” Shepherdson expected an even stronger number from ADP, and Wednesday’s report does nothing to change his view that Friday’s jobs number will come in at a robust 275,000.

Economists at Capital Economics also said there is evidence that ADP’s report lags, rather than leads, the official US jobs numbers, and said that they still see December’s payroll report as being “full of new year cheer.”

The market’s focus this week has remained on oil and the surprising rally in long-dated US Treasury bonds. But with the important US jobs report looming, the market’s attention will begin turning towards Friday’s big number.

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