In December ADP predicted huge jobs gains, and then two days later the BLS came out and said December was pretty mediocre for the labour market.
ADP became a laughingstock in the days following.
Well, it’s ADP day again. Estimates are for private sector job gains of 145K, but everyone’s already set to discount it due to either a) the fact that ADP is no longer reliable or b) the weather.
The weather is an issue, but it just doesn’t stand that ADP isn’t a good measure of the job market.
Overtime it matches pretty closely with the BLS number, and one outlier doesn’t change that.
So. Pay attention. The number is out at 8:15 AM ET.