ADP said private payrolls climbed 281,000 in June.
Consensus was for 205,000, up from 179,000.
It was the biggest gain since November 2012.
Pantheon Macro’s Ian Shepherdson, who hates the ADP report, which is supposed to predict nonetheless nailed the number, predicting we would be in for a big surprise to the upside because of a huge discrepancy in ADP’s last report with official data.
And in his reaction note, he says he’s keeping his estimate for Thursday’s big nonfarm payrolls report from the BLS at 200,000.
“ADP undershot relative to the official private payroll number in May so we expected an overshoot this month; remember, the ADP number is based on both hard data from firms using ADP for payroll processing and lagged official data,” he writes. “Still, this is a bigger rebound than we expected. It does not change our payroll forecast, though, which remains at a decent but unspectacular 200K. We worry that the seasonal factors in the official data – which are entirely separate from those used by ADP – were too generous in June last year and will now correct. Any hit will be temporary, though; the labour market is improving steadily despite the short-term noise.”
Here are the charts. Construction and finance jobs saw nice gains.
And change in paryoll size. Firms of 1,000 or more comprise the fastest-growing sector: