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This Friday we get Non-Farm Payrolls.Today we get the ADP jobs report, which is a preview.
Here’s Nomura’s take:
Based on our expectation for the November employment report, we expect ADP to announce that 155k (Consensus: 125k) in net new private sector jobs were created in November. We do not expect Hurricane Sandy to have much of an impact on ADP payroll employment because the data used in the ADP report does not measure whether a person was paid or working during the BLS reference period but only whether that person was listed on an ADP payroll record.
As for Sandy’s impact on the actual Non-Farm Payrolls number, Goldman Sachs expects it to be sizable.
From Goldman earlier in the week:
First, we update our earlier state-by-state analysis of the effects of historical hurricane damage on payroll growth and calculate a hit of 50,000 to November payroll employment. Second, we translate the observed jump in initial jobless claims into a payroll hit using a simple regression. The regression points to a range of 41,000-74,000. Although our analysis is subject to considerable uncertainty, it points to a notable hit to November payroll growth. This hit is the key reason why we expect a sluggish 75,000 jobs gain for November.
We’ll be covering the number here LIVE at 8:15 AM ET.