Seriously, hear us out.
We’ve been talking all morning about what a bad jobs report we got for March.
But there is another side.
We chatted with Matt Busigin, an economist and investor, who argued that actually this was a “great” jobs report.
His basic argument: The important leading sub-indices (professional/business services, construction) were strong. And in the key demographic groups, unemployment dropped massively, suggesting that a lot of what people are worried about is just based on ageing demographics, not anything cyclical.
Here’s our transcript.
Matt Busigin: I think it’s a great nfp
Joe Weisenthal: why?
Matt Busigin: large upward revisions
Joe Weisenthal: mmhmm
Matt Busigin: strong leading cyclical sub-indexes – construction and professional/business services
Joe Weisenthal: true
Joe Weisenthal: anything else?
Matt Busigin: unemployment in 25-34 men dropped 108k in one month man
Matt Busigin: people are finally feeling confident enough to retire
Matt Busigin: this is the first major cyclical strong retirement nfp
Matt Busigin: how is this a bad nfp?
Matt Busigin: 25-34 unemployment rate went from 7.8% to 7.4%
Matt Busigin: that is huge
Matt Busigin: and it shows that this is all demographic
Matt Busigin: I’ve been saying that we’re going to get a <0 NFP and a lowering unemployment rate at some point for a while
Matt Busigin: this ain’t quite it
Matt Busigin: but it sure looks close
Matt Busigin: the unemployment rate of 25-34 men went from 7.7% to 7.1%