Most would agree that today’s jobs report was a welcome one. U.S. companies added more jobs in February than most economists expected.
However, ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan sees it differently. He just posted on ECRI’s website:
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. Following this morning’s jobs report we have updated the jobs growth charts in our recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years, that illustrate the role of skewed seasonal factors in the economic data.
Here’s more from the presentation he references:
Indeed, these pictures of job growth shown by both the establishment and the household surveys are quite similar, and affirm that job growth is rolling over rather than improving. The so-called “improving trend” in job growth is largely illusory, according to both the establishment and household surveys. Quite simply, U.S. job growth is worsening, not getting better.
Achuthan believes this reinforces his thesis that the U.S. economy is currently in recession.
Here’s his chart:
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