Overall, a very mediocre/bad day for economic data.
Here’s a quick roundup:
- Case-Shiller fell 3.8% vs. expectations of a 3.5% decline. It was sequentially a slower fall, but still a bummer.
- Consumer Confidence came in at 39.8, a huge fall from last month’s 46.4, and well short of expectations of 46.0.
- The FHFA House Price Index lost 0.1% vs. expectations of 0.2% growth.
- The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -6 vs. expectations of +1.
And here’s Nomura on weekly retail spending:
Both weekly retail sales indices weakened in the third week of October. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs weekly chain stores index dropped 0.8% w-o-w and declined to a rate of 2.4% y-o-y from 3.6% in the previous week. Similarly, the Johnson Redbook retail sales index fell from a rate of 4.6% y-o-y to 4.1% last week. Month-to-date, the Redbook index increased 4.5% y-o-y, just shy of the 4.6% target. In the week following the Columbus Day holiday, the weather cooled off, but shoppers were not motivated to buy seasonal apparel. Halloween purchases should pick up in the final week of October as retailers begin to slash prices. Retail gasoline prices fell just a cent in the past week and now stand at an average of $3.46 per gallon, 22.9% higher than last year. Despite a significant drop in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October, buying plans increased slightly: 45.9% of consumers expect to buy major appliances within six months, an increase from 40.8% in September.