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From Dan Greenhaus’ latest Bedtime with BTIG note, some statistical evidence for bullishness right now:…for traders and investors, attention is now focused squarely on Friday’s number as either corroborating a spring/summer swoon or rebuffing weather-impacted concerns. If the report can solidly confirm one view or another, it will go a long way towards dictating trading action in coming weeks and months. That all said, our outlook for the remainder of the year runs into an important, albeit not necessarily statistically significant, observation; since 1960, when the S&P 500 is higher after the first four months of the year, it has never been negative by the end of the year (flat in 2011) and in 83% of occasions, has traded higher in the remaining eight months (1971, 1978, 1987, 2007 and 2011 are the exceptions).
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