We mentioned yesterday how bullish the ongoing trend in initial claims has been.
Here’s an interesting observation, via POLITICO’s Morning Money:
HFE’s Ian Shepherdson on the drop in jobless claims to 390K from 400K, below the 400K consensus and the lowest reading since early April “This is very good news, not least because we thought the huge north-east snowstorm was likely to boost claims temporarily. That might still happen next week, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the underlying trend in claims is now downwards. We think it likely that new post-Lehman lows will be reached in the next few weeks, signalling an acceleration in private sector payroll growth, other things equal. The pace of layoffs is still too high but at least they are moving in the right direction.”
Meanwhile, in other good news, the Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index, a general measure of how well the economic data is coming in vs. expectations, is looking good, having made fresh highs yesterday.