Obviously it’s impossible to know for sure how the market will react to tonight’s House vote on the Boehner plan.
But since it is the first big, suspenseful vote of the whole process, and since it’s all anyone is talking about today, some kind of reaction is probably inevitable.
If it fails, it’s easy to imagine a sell-off in futures, and if it passes, then the reverse could happen.
But even if it does pass, the next news that comes out (probably tonight) is the Senate kills it, at which point it will appear that we’re at STALEMATE WITH JUST 100 HOURS TO GO.
But even this isn’t necessarily the best characterization, since the (presumed) next step would be Reid melding his plan with Boehner’s and sending it back to the House, which in reality was always the most plausible way for a bill to pass both Houses.
All of this is to say that tonight could be big on headline fireworks, but not necessarily reflective of final outcomes.