A Quick Preview Of Today's Big Housing Number


Photo: Flickr / SDPitbull

Well, maybe “big” is an exaggeration since hosing starts couldn’t be more ugly these days, but anyway, here’s a preview from Ticonderoga Securities:At 590K for both Starts and Permits or down 2.3% and 1.2%, respectively, we believe the consensus for Starts will prove a tad aggressive, with expectations for Permits being slightly conservative. As is customary, however, the wildcard this month remains Multi-Family metrics which can skew overall data points. Similar to last month, we expect any miss versus expectations to be more impactful on the builder equities than any positive surprise.

We expect Single-Family Starts to be in the 420K-to-425K range.

Historically,    Single-Family    Star ts    have    fallen    roughly    1%    sequentially    in August compared to July. We note Single-Family Starts would be flat at the upper end of our estimate. At 420K, Single-Family Starts would measure 104% of July Permits, which compares to the roughly 105% average over the past 6 and 12 month periods. Employing Single-Family Starts of 422K, the mid-point of our range, implies 168K Multi-Family Starts to reach the 590K consensus. At 168K, Multi-Family Starts would be well above the data’s historic relationship to the prior month’s Multi-Family Permit data. We believe Multi-Family Starts in the 160K area more likely, which still measure 4% above the prior 6 month average of 154K.

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