The pros and cons of the Iran nuclear deal

ObamaREUTERS/Kevin LamarqueU.S. President Barack Obama gestures for guests to take their seats upon his arrival to speak during the 2015 White House Conference on Ageing (WHCOA) at the White House in Washington July 13, 2015.

US President Barack Obama is set to speak around 7 AM ET after world powers and Iran clinched a historic nuclear accord in Vienna overnight.

The deal the most significant foreign policy achievement for Obama, who will seek to persuade Congress to approve the deal in the next 60 days.

Geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer tweeted the basic pros and cons of any deal:

Bremmer and other observers believe that the administration is willing to take a bet — even if it loses — that Iran will become more open to the West.

The reasons? Obama and his team want a foreign-policy win, a legacy item, and a reward for putting in the effort they have. And if the deal falls apart, it will be immensely difficult to maintain the biting levels of sanctions of the past decade, especially given the dispositions of China and Russia. Furthermore, the US is slowly becoming less aligned with Israel and Saudi Arabia while also becoming less dependent on Middle East oil.

And then there’s the prospect of a more open Iran.

That “is the most uncertain of the reasons precisely because it’s destabilizing for the mullahs, and they’re very much aware of that,” geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider. “But Iran is much more likely to open given an end of sanctions, [foreign direct investment] coming in, the diaspora community travelling, and the rest than if the deal falls apart.

“If it turns out Iran maintains its present orientation in the international environment,” Bremmer said, “all the other reasons supporting a deal still hold.”

World powers and Iran¬†struck a landmark deal¬†Tuesday to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in relief from international sanctions — an agreement designed to avert the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran and another US military intervention in the Muslim world.

The accord will keep Iran from producing enough material for a nuclear weapon for at least 10 years and impose new provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites. And it marks a dramatic break from decades of animosity between the US and Iran, countries that alternatively call each other the “leading state sponsor of terrorism” and the “the Great Satan.”

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