Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Unbelievably, the VIX has settled down again, as the market shows almost no concern about, well… anything.Not even the debt ceiling, which gets talked about incessantly, is concerning anyone, except maybe a tiny handful of buyers of short-term credit default swaps.
In a note, BofA’s Benjamin Bowler lists some big events that could smash the complacency out of the market, and send volatility soaring:
- July 8: IMF board meeting on releasing another tranche of aid to Greece.
- Mid-July: Greek bond and coupon payment (and related issue of whether rollover plan constitutes default)
- Mid-July: Without concrete movement on the debt ceiling, Moody’s could threaten a ratings cut for the US.
- Late July: Italian austerity vote.
- Late July: Results of European stress tests.
- Early August: China manufacturing PMI.
- August 2: DEBT CEILING DEADLINE.
- August 9: FOMC MEETING.
Of course, these are just the big events, and none include all the data (like this Friday’s jobs report) which could also kill the calm.