A Preliminary Look At This Friday's Huge Jobs Report

The September employment report will be released on Friday and the consensus is for an increase of 65,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, up from the zero jobs added in August. Goldman Sachs is forecasting an increase of 50,000 jobs in September.

A key point to remember is that the Verizon labour dispute subtracted 45,000 jobs from the August report and those jobs will be added back in the September report. So even if September was the same as August, we would see 45,000 more jobs added.

Note: The Verizon labour dispute didn’t show up in the ADP employment report because the ADP counts employees on the payroll even if they aren’t working.

Another key point is that the manufacturing surveys (a small percentage of overall employment) mostly suggested employment expansion in September – and an improvement from August (See table below). Also the Chicago PMI indicated stronger employment expansion in September than in August.

However weekly initial unemployment claims for the BLS reference week were higher in September than in August – suggesting more layoffs. Still – overall – it appears September was somewhat better than August

Here is a table for the various employment components from several surveys in September starting in August 2007 (before the recession). Here is the spreadsheet in excel. Most of these surveys are just for manufacturing (Fed surveys), however the Chicago PMI includes both manufacturing and services.

Note: Above 50 is expansion for the Chicago PMI, above 0 is expansion for the Fed manufacturing surveys.

Employment Surveys through Sept 2011Above 50 is expansion for Chicago PMI, All others above zero Chicago PMINY Fed (Empire State)Philly FedRichmond FedKansas City FedDallas FedAvg Fed Mfg SurveysAug-07 53.2 11.8 14.7 -1 0 1.6 5.4 Sep-07 51.8 19.2 4.3 0 -1 7.2 5.9 Oct-07 50.2 17.4 7.3 -3 -2 5.8 5.1 Nov-07 52.6 7.1 4.0 -2 -5 2.0 1.2 Dec-07 49.3 5.0 1.3 4 4 -3.3 2.2 Jan-08 47.0 2.4 1.5 -2 12 9.0 4.6 Feb-08 33.5 -2.1 6.2 -2 1 5.5 1.7 Mar-08 44.6 4.5 0.6 -7 -3 4.6 -0.1 Apr-08 35.3 0.0 -4.2 -14 0 2.0 -3.2 May-08 41.2 1.1 -1.9 -10 -2 -5.9 -3.7 Jun-08 46.7 1.2 -8.7 -14 -13 -4.4 -7.8 Jul-08 45.9 -6.3 -6.2 -4 1 7.1 -1.7 Aug-08 39.2 -4.5 -8.4 -19 -3 -5.3 -8.0 Sep-08 49.1 -4.6 -4.5 -21 -11 -5.1 -9.2 Oct-08 41.5 -3.7 -22.3 -22 -14 -11.5 -14.7 Nov-08 33.4 -28.9 -26.5 -25 -22 -20.1 -24.5 Dec-08 39.6 -23.4 -31.3 -34 -32 -21.0 -28.3 Jan-09 34.8 -26.1 -37.1 -29 -34 -28.2 -30.9 Feb-09 25.2 -39.1 -41.0 -33 -33 -40.1 -37.2 Mar-09 28.1 -38.2 -49.6 -29 -35 -50.3 -40.4 Apr-09 31.8 -28.1 -38.8 -28 -23 -39.7 -31.5 May-09 25.0 -23.9 -29.8 -17 -16 -34.1 -24.2 Jun-09 28.9 -21.8 -23.2 -13 -13 -27.8 -19.8 Jul-09 35.3 -20.8 -23.7 -14 -16 -23.4 -19.6 Aug-09 38.7 -7.5 -18.1 -12 -10 -15.4 -12.6 Sep-09 38.8 -8.3 -16.1 -4 -2 -8.9 -7.9 Oct-09 38.3 10.4 -10.4 -4 -4 -12.2 -4.0 Nov-09 41.9 1.3 -3.5 -10 -2 -15.8 -6.0 Dec-09 51.2 -5.3 3.7 2 -4 -3.8 -1.5 Jan-10 59.8 4.0 6.2 2 2 -3.7 2.1 Feb-10 53.0 5.6 8.0 7 -2 -4.2 2.9 Mar-10 53.1 12.4 9.3 8 2 4.5 7.2 Apr-10 57.2 20.3 7.4 19 5 11.6 12.7 May-10 49.2 22.4 3.4 7 2 13.8 9.7 Jun-10 54.2 12.4 -1.0 2 0 7.1 4.1 Jul-10 56.6 7.9 6.6 8 5 7.2 6.9 Aug-10 55.5 14.3 -3.9 3 -1 -3.3 1.8 Sep-10 53.4 14.9 1.4 -1 -2 3.7 3.4 Oct-10 54.6 21.7 1.4 5 0 -2.5 5.1 Nov-10 56.3 9.1 11.7 10 8 7.1 9.2 Dec-10 60.2 -3.4 4.3 15 11 16.1 8.6 Jan-11 64.1 8.4 17.6 14 8 9.3 11.5 Feb-11 59.8 3.6 23.6 15 23 10.5 15.1 Mar-11 65.6 9.1 18.2 16 25 11.6 16.0 Apr-11 63.7 23.1 12.3 12 17 13.4 15.6 May-11 60.8 24.7 22.1 16 9 11.6 16.7 Jun-11 58.7 10.2 4.1 14 17 5.3 10.1 Jul-11 51.5 1.1 8.9 4 4 12.1 6.0 Aug-11 52.1 3.3 -5.2 1 8 5.4 2.5 Sep-11 60.6 -5.4 5.8 7 12 13.4 6.6

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