A Market Tragic’s Guide To The Academy Awards

Getty/John Shearer

From Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, comes your guide to investing in the Oscars.

We market tragics tend to see just about everything in terms of whether it might lead to a decent trade.

If like me, you share this sometimes embarrassing characteristic, the following bit of number crunching by our North American analyst, Colin Cieszynski, might heighten your interest in the Academy Awards.

After allowing for some imperfections in the data, Colin calculates that there is a market halo effect for the Best Picture Winning Studio. Over the past 15 years they have outperformed the movie and entertainment sector by an average 1.7% during March.

However, Colin cautions that March has not been kind to the sector as a whole. Over the past 25 years, it’s underperformed the market by 0.84% on average.

Make of this what you will. Perhaps a pairs trade buying CFDs over the winning studio and shorting an equivalent value of the most favoured loser.

Anyway, here’s some data on who’s involved.

By the time this is published the winner may be known but the markets don’t open till later. This year, five studios associated with public companies are in the running for best picture. Warner Brothers (Time Warner), Columbia (Sony) and Paramount (Viacom) each have two entries while 21st Century Fox and Universal (Comcast) have one.

This year’s Best Picture nominees:

Film Associated Studio
12 Years a Slave Fox
American Hustle Columbia
Captain Phillips Columbia
Dallas Buyers Club Universal
Gravity Warner
Her Warner
Nebraska Paramount
Philomena Weinstein
Wolf of Wall Street Paramount

You can follow Ric on Twitter @ricspooner_CMC

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